Why Philadelphia May be Beating the National Curve on Gun Violence
Two national analyses document historic declines in violence, with Philadelphia among the strongest performers
The nation may have just recorded one of the lowest homicide rates in modern history. A new report from the Center for American Progress (CAP) estimates the 2025 homicide rate may have fallen as low as 4 per 100,000 residents, continuing the decline from the pandemic-era peak in 2021. Separate research from The Pew Charitable Trusts confirms the trend: Homicides fell 18% nationwide in 2025, the largest one-year drop on record, putting the national rate at its lowest point since the FBI began tracking comparable data in 1960.
Philadelphia is outperforming that national trend. The city is among 17 of the nation’s 50 largest cities where gun victimizations dropped by more than 50% from 2021 to 2025, according to CAP’s analysis of Gun Violence Archive data, compared with a roughly 30% decline across the rest of the nation in CAP’s analysis. The decline has continued into 2026: Philadelphia homicides fell 38% in the first quarter compared with the same period in 2025.
THE SCALE OF THE DROP
Philadelphia gun victimizations dropped more than 50% (2021–2025); Q1 2026 homicides fell another 38% vs. Q1 2025.
The two reports point to overlapping potential contributors to the decline, including community violence intervention, focused deterrence, improved investigative technology and coordinated prevention leadership. Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner also cited stronger use of forensics linking ballistic evidence across cases, while researchers told Pew that credible messenger programs, hospital-based violence intervention and investment in shared community spaces may have contributed alongside law enforcement efforts. CAP also notes that every city experiencing at least a 50% decline in gun victimization since 2021 has invested in, collaborated with or leveraged funding for local community violence intervention programs.
The progress is substantial, but it is not self-sustaining. Federal support for hundreds of community violence intervention organizations has been reduced, and pandemic-era relief funds from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) that helped launch or expand many programs are approaching expiration. CAP reports that approximately $500 million in federal grants supporting more than 550 organizations across 48 states were terminated in 2025, while ARPA funds must be spent by the end of 2026.
Experts interviewed by Pew agreed on the need for continued investment in violence reduction, even as they differed on where that investment should be directed, and called for more rigorous research into what is working where.
For Philadelphia, the reports reinforce a similar lesson: Local strategies including community intervention, focused enforcement, improved investigations and coordination are among the approaches associated with the progress, and sustaining the gains will require continued investment in the people, programs and partnerships doing the work.
READ MORE: Pew: Why Are Homicides Declining Across the United States?
Pennsylvania Maintains Critical Investment in Gun Violence Intervention
The 2026-27 state budget provides continuity as federal support becomes less certain
Pennsylvania’s 2026-27 budget continues approximately $62 million for Violence Intervention and Prevention programs, a significant commitment at a moment when federal support for similar work is growing less certain nationwide. For the community-based organizations working to prevent shootings and save lives, that funding provides an important source of continued support.
The exact state appropriation is $62.1 million for the Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency’s Violence Intervention and Prevention (VIP) Program, which directs funds to community-based organizations to reduce gun violence.
THE CENTRAL IDEA
Gun violence intervention is public safety infrastructure. It’s not a short-term response to a crisis.
That investment matters because federal grants (the piece of the funding picture now most at risk) are what helped many communities expand violence intervention efforts in the first place. States and local governments are increasingly left to determine how they will sustain the infrastructure that has been built.
That question is especially important now. Philadelphia has experienced historic reductions in gun violence, demonstrating that progress is possible. But fewer shootings are not a reason to pull back from the strategies and partnerships helping communities become safer.
Community violence intervention depends on trained, trusted people doing difficult work every day: engaging those at highest risk, mediating conflicts, connecting individuals with services and preventing retaliation before another shooting occurs. Building that workforce and the systems around it takes time. Maintaining them requires dependable resources.
Pennsylvania’s continued investment helps sustain violence intervention capacity even as conditions improve. The challenge now is to protect the progress already made by sustaining the people, partnerships and infrastructure necessary to keep it going.
READ MORE: Pennsylvania 2026-27 budget overview
LESSONS FROM OTHER COMMUNITIES
Across Cities, the Same Building Blocks Keep Showing Up.
Though at different stages, Baltimore and Milwaukee County show the value of coordination, sustained services, and community partnerships
Baltimore offers one of the clearest examples of a coordinated approach to reducing violence. The city’s Group Violence Reduction Strategy (GVRS) combines focused deterrence, community violence intervention and services for those at highest risk. Earlier attempts struggled when promised services and enforcement were not consistently delivered. The current effort emphasizes follow-through within a broader citywide prevention plan, and Baltimore’s reductions are now drawing national attention.
An evaluation found GVRS was associated with roughly a one-third reduction in shootings and homicides in the Western District compared with similar areas that had not yet received the strategy. The city has since expanded GVRS to six of Baltimore’s nine police districts.
Milwaukee County is taking a similar systems-oriented approach with its recently launched Destined for Greater initiative, which brings existing community violence intervention programs, mental wellness services and new state-funded projects into a coordinated structure. The initiative is designed to connect residents with intervention, employment, housing and mental health support.
It builds on existing programs that have already reported positive outcomes. Since the Advance Peace Fellowship launched in 2024, 95% of fellows reported no new gun injuries, while the Credible Messenger Program most recently reported that 76% of participating youth had no referral or offense while participating in the program.
What the approaches have in common:
- Focus resources on people at highest risk of involvement in violence.
- Engage community partners alongside government and law enforcement.
- Connect individuals with services and supports that address needs beyond immediate violence prevention.
- Coordinate work across agencies and organizations rather than relying on a single program.
- Build the capacity and partnerships necessary to sustain the work over time.
Baltimore and Milwaukee County are at different points in this work. Baltimore provides evidence of the impact associated with a mature, coordinated violence reduction strategy. Its approach is built around data, weekly reviews of shootings, services, community messengers and consistent follow-through. Milwaukee County, meanwhile, is deliberately building greater coordination across existing programs and partners, with regular convenings designed to improve collaboration and impact.
Together, the two examples underscore a central lesson: Effective violence reduction is not simply a collection of individual programs. It requires coordination, sustained services, community partnerships and the infrastructure to connect them.
READ MORE: The Trace: What Cities Can Learn from Baltimore
READ MORE: Milwaukee County: Destined for Greater
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PHILADELPHIA
The Next Test Is Whether Philadelphia Can Make Progress Last
Philadelphia’s reduction in gun violence is part of an encouraging national trend, and local choices may help explain why the city has outperformed that broader decline. Philadelphia has invested in intervention, improved coordination and focused resources on those at greatest risk while building systems intended to sustain the work.
CAP notes that national factors appear to explain much of the nationwide decline, while cities with the steepest reductions share a number of local strategies and investments. Every city experiencing at least a 50% decline in gun victimizations since 2021 has directly invested in, collaborated with or leveraged state and federal funding to establish or expand community violence intervention programs.
Pennsylvania’s continued funding matters because it gives community-based organizations a measure of stability as federal support becomes less predictable. The experiences of Baltimore and Milwaukee County illustrate the importance of coordinated leadership, community partnerships and sustained investment in the systems that support violence reduction.
The decline in shootings and homicides is occurring alongside coordinated, evidence-informed violence reduction efforts, and research from places such as Baltimore provides evidence that some of those approaches can produce meaningful reductions in violence. The opportunity now is to move from successful initiatives to a durable public safety system: one capable of preserving progress through changing budgets, administrations and public attention.
THE TAKEAWAY
Progress is real. The work is not finished. Philadelphia’s next task is to protect what is working and make it durable.
The Civic Coalition to Save Lives’ 2025 Annual Report offers a closer look at the progress behind that challenge, the partnerships helping drive Philadelphia’s violence reduction efforts and the work still ahead.
If you missed it when we shared it in June, we invite you to take a look.
ICYMI
News Roundup: Spotlight on Intervention
Each month, we feature news stories from Philadelphia and beyond that highlight the power of intervention—showcasing programs, research, and community efforts working to prevent violence, support those at highest risk, and build safer neighborhoods through proven, people-centered strategies.
